Xbox leak reveals estimated costs of AAA games on Game Pass

Leaked Microsoft documents have revealed the estimated costs of putting third-party games on Xbox Game Pass.

As reported by Kotaku, an internal email exchange in May 2022 between Microsoft's VP of gaming business development Sarah Bond and Xbox head Phil Spencer showcased how much it would cost to bring titles like Star Wars Jedi: Survivor and Mortal Kombat 1 to the service.

Bond provided an analysis of potential day-and-date debuts on Xbox's subscription service to fill the gap, including cost estimates, average hours of play, and the likelihood that publishers would be open to making a deal.

Star Wars: Jedi Survivor had the highest estimated cost at $300 million. Bond described acquiring the title as a "crown jewel" for Game Pass, but noted that EA was unlikely to agree to a deal.

Mortal Kombat 1 was also deemed a "crown jewel" for Xbox, but like other Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment titles, it would be unlikely to pass following the recent merger with Discovery.

However, Xbox announced on Tuesday that Gotham Knights ($50 million) would be coming to Game Pass on October 3, and Lego Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga ($35 million) was made available on the service last December.

Baldur's Gate 3 was also a potential buy, valued at $5 million. While it seems Microsoft may have underestimated the game's popularity, Larian's director of publishing Michael Douse clarified that "so did everyone else."

"[It] comes with the genre, and the way we approach things, and the way we execute things," Douse shared on X. "There just isn't any existing data that could have told anyone how BG3 was going to perform. We just had to take giant spooky leaps."

It was reported in February 2023 that Baldur's Gate 3 was not coming to Xbox Series X and S at all due to technical issues caused by the disparities between the two models. However, Larian has now confirmed the game will be made available for both Xbox devices later this year.

While not included in the analysis, Spencer also mentioned a potential deal with FromSoftware to get the Dark Souls games on Game Pass following "the hit factor around Elden Ring." It's unclear if Microsoft is still pursuing this deal.

The discussion came after Spencer shared his concerns that, because of Starfield's delay and a lack of clarity on Redfall's release, Xbox would likely experience a 16-month gap between exclusive launches.

"This is really a disaster situation for us given all we've invested in content across our studios at our GP content fund," Spencer wrote.

"We need to learn from this and build a plan forward. To come off of 2021 with no big exclusives launching in 2022 is a portfolio planning miss that we can't afford."

Read the full list of estimates below:

• Lego Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga: $35 million
• Dying Light 2: $50 million
• City Skylines 2: Unknown
• Red Dead Redemption 2: $5 million per month
• Dragon Ball: The Breakers: $20 million
• Just Dance: $5 million
• Let's Sing ABBA: $5 million
• Return to Monkey Island: $5 million
• Wreckfest 2: $10-$14 million
• Baldur's Gate 3: $5 million
• Gotham Knights: $50 million
• Assassin's Creed Mirage: $100 million
• Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League: $250 million
• Star Wars Jedi: Survivor: $300 million
• Mortal Kombat 1: $250 million
• Grand Theft Auto 5: $12-15 million per month
• Blood Runner: $5 million
• Net Crisis Glitch Busters: $5 million

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