Rumour Mill

Are Sony and Microsoft happy that Wii U will beat them to market? No, probably not, but they're probably trying very hard not to see it as a case of being beaten to market at all. Bear in mind that Wii U won't be a more powerful console than the 360 or PS3 - rather, it'll be similar in specification, but sporting a unique tablet interface. 360 and PS3, meanwhile, sport Kinect and Move respectively as major recent feature upgrades, and it can't have escaped the notice of those companies that they both offer mobile phone and tablet devices to the market which could potentially replicate the functionality of Wii U. Of course, if they were being really clever, they'd replicate Wii U's functionality in an iPad application that links to your PS3 or 360. Either way, they're unlikely to feel that this is sufficient pressure to warrant speeding up the arrival of next-gen hardware.

How about the second factor, then - the simple fact that we're six years into the generation, so it's now "time" for new hardware?

For broadly the same reasons as outlined above, that's absolute nonsense - it's only time for new hardware when the tech, the market and the finances make sense, and both platform holders have been adamant from the outset that they didn't see this generation as a five or six year long pitch. They've invested heavily, and they need more time to get their money back - especially since competition has meant that the pie, although it's bigger this time around, has been sliced up more thinly, especially from Sony's perspective.

If Sony and Microsoft can get away with it, they'd both dearly love 2012 to be another year that's all about current platforms.

Take a look at the sales curves of the three consoles, if you really want to understand this situation. The Wii, as mentioned, had a fast and aggressive sales curve that generated a big installed base and has now slowed significantly. PS3 and Xbox, meanwhile, have tracked fairly similar curves, with PS3 running a year behind Xbox but very slowly making up the difference (largely thanks to sales outside the USA). Compared with the last generation's all-conquering PS2, both consoles are lagging behind, but not very significantly - it's only a matter of a few per cent. Decent price cuts in 2012 would push them further into mass market territory, but price cuts have come more slowly in this generation than in the last, which supports the idea of slower, more drawn out hardware generation.

Bearing all of this in mind, what should we really expect to see - and that's "expect", from the present market situation, rather than on the basis of rumour or industry scuttlebutt - at E3 this year? Honestly, nothing. I'd expect Sony to make a big deal out of Vita, push out a significant PS3 price cut (perhaps even a fresh redesign?) and perhaps start to make noise about tighter integration between PlayStation and Xperia. On Microsoft's side I'd expect more of a drive towards core adoption of Kinect and a very heavy presence for Windows Phone 7 devices and games at the conference. If either company was to start dropping hints about the next gen of hardware, I'd expect it to be Microsoft, but neither company actually needs, or wants, to commence buzz around next-gen systems just yet.

Have no doubt - the next gen of console hardware is coming, and both companies are making plans. You don't have to start digging very deep into an industry contact book to find that out. There are also contingency plans afoot, certainly - if one firm discovers that the other is going to do some kind of E3 unveil, they want to have something ready to respond with, after all. But I don't think anyone could place hand on heart and say that they're certain of seeing new hardware at E3 this year. If Sony and Microsoft can get away with it, they'd both dearly love 2012 to be another year that's all about current platforms, and not expensive, profit-busting dreams of the future.