Publisher model will rise again through mobile
DICE 2012: The model isn't broken, but maybe the publishers are, argues Divnich
While the console publishing market continues to shrink, the model is set for a resurgence due to growth in the mobile games sector, according to EEDAR's Jesse Divnich.
Speaking at the 2012 D.I.C.E. Summit in Las Vegas, the analyst predicted a rise in mobile publishing that will closely resemble the traditional console market of success, partnerships and eventual consolidation of studios and IP.
"We're going to see publishers through emerging markets, we're beginning to see publishers rise in mobile," Divnich told attendees. "New publishers will fall and rise.
"Ultimately what's going to happen is that a developer does something great and it makes a lot of money and they say to themselves 'we do such a great job making our games, we're going to help other people make games.' And then eventually they say ' we did such a great job helping other people make games we could make more money if we just bought them and then we own everything'.
"That's where we are today with EA and Activision and that cycle is going to start again with mobile."
Divnich argued that the publishing model isn't necessarily broken, but the traditional players are, with product decisions being made by execs on a financial rather than creative basis. And that's why so many names - Acclaim, Atari, Midway - have collapsed over the past two console generations.
"The publishing model is not broken but maybe the publishers are," he said. "We've evolved to that point where they do such a great job publishing that they buy studios outright. The higher ups make decisions and the game becomes clunkers because the developer doesn't have an incentive beyond milestones and review scores, they don't have that sense of ownership or autonomy anymore."
He predicted that independent mobile studios will team with publishing partners and through hard work become the mobile equivalent of some of the console businesses' most influential developers.
"It's just a necessary evil. For people to become the next Insomniac or Bungie they have to cut their teeth, they have work with publishers.
"If you think the publishing model is broken or is going away, well, what's really going to happen in the long term is these studios who are at the top echelons on our industry have to go through the hard times to build up the name, to build quality, to get the resources they need to exploit and bring their full potential to market."