Lazard: Kinect will sell 4m over Christmas

Lazard Capital Market analyst Colin Sebastian has claimed Kinect could "exceed our original expectations."

Believing that Microsoft's marketing efforts will skew towards the "better value" $299 bundle of the motion controller plus an Xbox 360 rather than the $129 standalone unit, he has increased Lazard's sales forecast.

"Our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of around 2 million units per month... suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device," he said in a note to investors. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for [the Christmas quarter] to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

Sebastian also attributes this new optimism to how he perceived Microsoft targeting its audience. "We believe that Microsoft is preparing a significant marketing and advertising campaign for Kinect, coinciding with the device launch," he said.

"Games using the Kinect sensor will initially include fitness, dance, sports and kart racing, suggesting that Microsoft is targeting a casual (Wii) audience."

Though he continued to dispute Kinect's launch price, "we believe the better value is the Xbox 360 bundle for $299. We continue to believe that $99 would be a 'sweet spot' for Kinect, and production quantities suggest that Microsoft may be leaving open the possibility for price promotions on Kinect next year."

However, he felt that Kinect as merely an Xbox add-on may be just an opening salvo from Microsoft. "Over time, we also anticipate that motion sensors will show up in connected TVs, living room PCs, set-top boxes and other consumer devices."

The analyst was less ebullient about PlayStation Move, but thought it would at least provide a signpost to Kinect's success.

"We note that Sony's Move launches in North America on Sept. 19, and although without as much 'buzz' as Kinect, Move should provide an early indication as to consumer demand for the next generation of motion controllers," he claimed.