How well will the PS5 Pro sell?

From the reactions we've seen to the PS5 Pro's $700 price tag, it would be easy to think Sony's new console is dead on arrival. But, as our own Chris Dring pointed out yesterday, the price isn't the biggest issue facing the new hardware launch, and for all the uproar over the expense, there is still a market for PlayStation's high-end device.

To get a better sense of the PS5 Pro's prospects, GamesIndustry.biz spoke to a number of analysts about their sales expectations and the many factors that affect a mid-generation console's launch.

Ampere Analysis' games research director Piers Harding-Rolls pointed us towards his forecast, posted shortly after the PS5 Pro was announced, in which he suggests 1.3 million units could be sold by the end of 2024 – slightly behind the 1.7 million the PS4 Pro shifted during its own launch window.

Conversely, Sam Naji, founder of SJN Insights, tells us he would be surprised if Sony shifted more than one million units within the first year.

There are also comparisons to be made with PS4 Pro, which sold 14.5 million units in its lifetime. Ampere expects PS5 Pro to reach 13 million by 2029, a similar timeframe.

"Like the PS4 Pro, we don’t expect the PS5 Pro to significantly alter the sales dynamics of the PS5 platform as most buyers will be a mixture of existing PS5 owners or upgraders from PS4 that have switched their attention to the Pro model instead of the standard PS5," Harding-Rolls wrote.

"However, Sony will be hoping that these power users will spend more on software and services helping its overall PlayStation business."

Rhys Elliott, games industry analyst at Midia Research, agrees that the PS5 Pro will most likely perform in line with its PS4 predecessor, suggesting it could shift up to 15 million units before the end of the generation.

Meanwhile, Kantan Game CEO Dr Serkan Toto observes that PS4 Pro ended up accounting for a little over 10% of all PS4s sold and expects the PS5 Pro to "finish below that but still be roughly in the same ballpark."

"What many people do not completely register is just how well the current PS5 has been selling and that over 50 million is a very impressive install base given the lack of blockbuster releases this generation so far," he adds.

Looking specifically at the US, a major market for any platform holder, Circana's executive director for video games Mat Piscatella predicts up to 20% of all PS5s sold in the first two months after the Pro launches will be the high-end model.

He adds that the PS4 Pro accounted for 13% of the PS4's total unit sales in the US, and 15% of its lifetime dollar sales. He expects the PS5 Pro to make up between 9% and 15% of unit sales, and slightly higher in dollars due to its premium price point.

"PlayStation is similar to Apple here but on a much smaller scale – it almost feels like a lifestyle brand, and there are fans who will buy almost any new product PlayStation puts out"

Rhys Elliott, Midia Research

All analysts agree there is an audience eager to pick up the Pro, albeit primarily composed of those most devoted PlayStation fans. "In that sense, it's like a Mercedes-AMG, a pimped up version of an already powerful product for the top end of the market," says Toto.

Elliott adds: "PlayStation is similar to Apple here but on a much smaller scale. It almost feels like a lifestyle brand – and there are PlayStation fans who will buy almost any new product PlayStation puts out. Like with Apple, the niche VR market was too big an ask for PlayStation 5 diehards, though."

He adds that today's consumers are already prepared to pay more for the latest electronics. When the PS4 Pro launched for $399 in 2016, the highest-end iPhone (iPhone 7 Plus) cost $769. The recently announced iPhone 16 Pro Max will start at $1,199, and consumers already spend hundreds if not thousands on high-end PC GPUs.

Piscatella notes that fans were already spending upwards of $1,000 on marketplaces like StockX to secure a PS5 at launch in 2020, and that Circana's Checkout service shows PlayStation already attracts the most high-income household purchasers when compared to the other consoles. 49% of people who bought a PS5 in the three months ending July 31 2024 were from households with income of over $100,000 per year. By comparison, only 43% of Xbox buyers and 40% of Switch purchases fell in the same category.

Harding-Rolls adds that Sony's PlayStation business is even more global than it was in the previous generation, increasing the chance of sales in other markets. "Eight years on from when the PS4 Pro launched, PS5 is selling strongly in countries where there are increasing numbers of consumers with growing disposable income such as mainland China and Saudi Arabia. These markets represent a growing opportunity for PlayStation versus the PS4 generation."

In terms of the price, opinion is divided on whether it was to be expected – Toto, for example, has predicted $600 to $650 – but all agree $700 is the "absolute maximum," as the Kantan CEO puts it, that Sony could have asked for.

"It’s a sweet spot that highly engaged players would be receptive to," Elliott explains. "These players have shown time and time again that they’re willing to pay an extra $200 to complement their experience, say with a high-end controller or PlayStation Portal. Anything higher than $700 would obviously have resulted in even more backlash.

"If PlayStation and Xbox could turn back the clock, they’d probably have priced their base consoles at $600 at launch. $700 is a hefty price tag into today’s macroeconomic climate, and that’s even truer for the price point in the UK, but PlayStation superfans will still buy this product."

Harding-Rolls offers more context on the regional disparities when it comes to pricing; while the Pro represents a 40% premium on the standard disc-based model in the US (let's not forget Pro owners need to buy a disc drive separately), it's a 46% in the UK, 45% in Europe and as high as 50% in Japan.

There's also a big difference when compared to the PS4 Pro, which was 33% more expensive than the standard model when it launched. The PS5 Pro is 50% more expensive than the base.

"PS5 Pro pricing reflects Sony’s adjusted strategy to protect its margin, generally supply chain inflation and a lack of direct competitor to its mid-cycle upgrade compared to last generation (where Microsoft was preparing the Xbox One X)," Harding-Rolls wrote.

"The lack of competition means it is an easier decision for Sony to run with a higher price point to protect its existing margins. For most prospective PS5 consumers, the standard edition will represent the value sweet spot."

The nearest thing the PS5 Pro has to a competitor is Xbox's $600 2TB disc-less Series X, which arrives on shelves this October. Aside from the larger storage, this model has the same specifications as the launch model of the Series X; both Toto and Elliott believe the Pro's $700 price tag doesn't seem quite so outrageous compared to this.

Piscatella adds that, while he expected and understands the online reaction, it reflects changes in this space of the industry.

"The reality is that the console market is stratifying in many ways," he says. "Look at games with $249 Collector's Editions, or games that feature days of early access so long as someone is willing to pay a $99.99+ price point for that game. Or premium gamepads and headsets... The list goes on.

"Back in the day, everyone played on the same console, with the same controller, playing the same games at the same time. It's just not like that anymore. Companies are trying to maximise the dollars they can generate from both price sensitive and price insensitive consumers. This has been a bit of a painful transition for many console fans. I get it, but it's where we're at, and this trend is not going to slow anytime soon."

SJN Insights' Naji, meanwhile, observes that the price wasn't actually mentioned in Mark Cerny's presentation of the PS5 Pro, instead only revealed by a flash card at the end of the video. "This tells me Sony is fully aware of how charged this price point is and that expectation could be tempered. Given next year the Switch 2 is expected to drop with a price point below £400, the opportunity cost for the PS5 Pro could potentially be the price of two Switch 2 consoles. Consumers mentally make calculations like that when they hear £700."

"The console market is stratifying in many ways... Back in the day, everyone played on the same console, with the same controller, playing the same games at the same time. It's just not like that anymore"

Mat Piscatella, Circana

Naji's comments call into question the value of PS5 Pro as a product. While the PS4 Pro had an easy selling point – support for the 4K TVs that had become more abundant than at that generation's launch – this is relying on more incremental tech upgrades. Instead of the 8K support the Pro offers, Sony's focus is on the 45% faster rendering, advanced ray-tracing and 60fps and AI upscaling.

"These all sound very impressive on paper until you actually see the difference in graphic fidelity over the current PS5 console," says Naji. "The image is at best marginally sharper, and gameplay is marginally smoother, but to warrant an additional 67% increase in price over the PlayStation Slim is a huge ask for the majority of potential console purchasers, especially in this current financial climate.

"Even when adjusted for inflation, £700 price point is around the same price of the 80GB PS3 which launched in 2006 (£712 in today’s money) and that console has gone down in history as being out of step with consumer wallets. What is worse is that it was a new console and this is an iteration of an existing console."

Naji acknowledges that there is always "a hefty price to pay for top of the range technology that is leaps and bounds ahead of current machines," but the current demonstration of the PS5 Pro failed to convince him that Sony has achieved this.

"The value proposition of the PS5 Pro could change over time as new games could utilise all that power but it was interesting to note that all the games showcased to show off the PS5 Pro were mostly single-player narrative games, something Sony has largely pivoted away from."

Most of the analysts expect the PS5 Pro's appeal will be enhanced with bundles further down the line – especially if Sony can arrange a bundle with next year's Grand Theft Auto 6, which our panel believes will be a key marketing opportunity for the Pro.

As for the long-term impact this console has, it's expected that the model will simply compliment PlayStation's business rather than significantly boosting it.

"There is a market for it, and a lot of the people complaining online simply are not part of that market," says Elliott. "We expect that the PS5 Pro will have a direct positive impact on hardware sales and will also trickle into software spending. However, the impact will be relatively small overall, and the Pro won’t lead to much user acquisition for PlayStation.

Naji concludes that the console's mid-term performance will depend on three factors: the state of people's finances and the macro economy, Sony's ability to demonstrate the Pro significantly improves current games, and whether consumers are willing to buy a digital-only console or fork out more for the external disc drive.

As for the console's long-term prospects, those depend upon future games.

"The problem is developers and publishers will continue to build games for the maximum audience and if that audience play on the standard models and are not willing to pay the extra premium to upgrade to the Pro, the games themselves may not be made to show off the power of the Pro, leading to a possible Catch 22 scenario," Naji explains.

"Lack of the highest fidelity games could result with little need to buy the Pro, lack of demand for the Pro confirms the view that games do not need to be built for the smaller market of the strongest machines. Only time will tell."