Could Mobile Replace the Console?

Next let's set some flags in the sand - a criteria by which any piece of technology could kill the console.

• Technology is available and affordable: Think laserdisc or DAT. Great tech, but limited availability and prohibitive expense killed them in infancy.
• There is a good user experience: The iPhone didn't do much more than the next smartphone at launch, but it stole a lot of the market because it made everything so much easier.
• There is good, easily available and affordable content: So many console also-rans have lost on this. Price, quality and delivery of games is vitally important.
• Consumers adopt: This will happen because it is marketed right and it does all of the above as well as or better than a console.

The console market operates a razor model: You sell the handles (consoles) at a loss or low profit to gain market share where blades (games) are sold at a huge mark up. This is cut throat. If numbers on the handles decline, the blade sales plummet, creating a negative feedback loop.

We're also still seeing increasing budget in console software production, but market growth is reasonably stagnant. Margins are squeezed and risk is high. The hits need to be bigger and those pushed out or closed down are looking for new markets.

If a technology can meet the criteria I've outlined and begin to knock console hardware and software units in meaningful way, the house of cards could collapse quickly. With that as a context, where is mobile (iOS and Android at least) in the previous criteria?

• Technology is available: iOS Airplay Mirroring is here. Some Android devices have HDMI screen mirroring, but Google is thought to be adding wireless HDMI and controller support for future devices. USB hosting for controllers is in Android from 3.1 and higher.
• Technology is affordable: Airplay Mirroring requires an iOS 5 capable device and an Apple TV. Assuming the latter is already owned along with a wireless router the outlay is £99 for the Apple TV. Similarly a wireless HDMI TV or receiver will be required for Android. When either wireless HDMI or Airplay is built in to TVs (Jobs' autobiography talks of the iTV) out of the box and is widely adopted the barrier is dropped to zero.
• There is a good user experience: Right now that isn't the case for Airplay Mirroring. Set up is a little fiddly, the display isn't full screen (due to aspect ratio mismatch) and Apple TV only supports 720p. Also it only mirrors the mobile device's screen, so you cannot display a control scheme on the mobile, while the game shows at 1080p on the TV. The Android offering is less known and could be where they leapfrog iOS.
• There is good, easily available and affordable content: The definition of good is very subjective. iOS has some fantastic console-like games, such as Infinity Blade (which I deeply admire), Real Racing 2 and Shadow Gun. The prices are affordable and models mixed, including free-to-play, ad supported, paid with IAP and now, subscription. Also, Apple has a great database of card details and fantastic service in the App Store. Android is a little behind.
• Consumers adopt: This will occur when they are aware, in that they see or are told, of the offering (I doubt less than 5 per cent of iOS users know about Airplay mirroring) and it is good (see above).

So, perhaps mobile is almost there on a few cases. Smart TV and cloud gaming (I primarily now play on an OnLive microconsole) also meet, or are near to meeting, criteria too.

Where I think we're ultimately headed is a mix of all those technologies (and ones we can't yet imagine). All with the same content shared seamlessly across our four screens (pocket, lap, desk and wall), ubiquitously connected and delivered through the paradigm of the app.

What is under the hood of any app may be web content, such as HTML5 or Flash, OS native or cloud rendered, but it will be indistinguishable to the user. Everything is connected. Content is easily accessible and controlled in a multitude of ways.

Games will sit alongside TV, movies or music, with the notions of their separation, coming from their respective formats and retail channels, gone. Instead everything is the app and the mobile device (the pocket or lap screen) is central to the world as the most portable.

Or it could be something totally different. Because until it's happened, with all the unknown, it's just guessing.