Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 could boost Game Pass subscribers by 2.5m to 4m

The launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 into Game Pass will hurt sales of the game, but will see millions of subscribers flock to Xbox's service, leading analysts say.

However, the true success won't be immediately known, as it'll depend on whether Xbox can keep subscribers within the service in the months following the game's launch.

Wedbush boss Michael Pachter believes that putting Call of Duty in Game Pass could result in up to six million lost sales, based on the idea that 25% of Game Pass subscribers may have bought the game anyway. However, he adds that the move could result in between three to four million people signing up to Game Pass to access the title.

"Good overall for Microsoft and for consumers," he told us. "But the headline will say 'Call of Duty sales are down'."

Ampere's chief games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls is a little more conservative, and believes that Call of Duty will result in a 10% increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscribers (so 2.5 million). He also says that not all of those will be completely new users, as it will include those upgrading from Game Pass Core and Game Pass Standard (Call of Duty will only be available in the 'Ultimate' tier). In fact, he feels a 'good chunk' of new subscribers will come from those tiers.

Harding-Rolls adds that although there will inevitably be some lost premium sales, there is scope to alleviate that through other forms of monetisation.

"The removal of the 14-day $1 trial offer is an indication that Microsoft needs to maximise its subscription revenue returns from the introduction of one of gaming's biggest franchises at launch," he says.

"There is no doubt that adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive, at least initially, for Microsoft. However, Call of Duty is increasingly a live-service game first and foremost that monetises strongly in-game. Microsoft will be trading premium full-game sales in exchange for a bigger audience that can be monetised in-game instead.

"One of the key questions is how this might impact how the game is monetised and whether there is a bigger onus on in-game monetisation compared to previous entries in the franchise. In terms of audience expansion, Xbox and PC are likely to be key growth platforms. Cloud support at launch offers some potential, but I think the Call of Duty streaming opportunity aligns most strongly with playing on TV screens and PC monitors rather than on mobile devices where Call of Duty Mobile and Warzone are already popular."

Newzoo market analyst Brett Hunt also believes that Black Ops 6 will attract a stronger audience this year, certainly compared with last year's Modern Warfare 3. However, that's not just because of its inclusion in Game Pass.

"Black Ops has always been well received and with a mutually exclusive campaign from Modern Warfare, new movement system in multiplayer, and return of round-based Zombies, this should result in numbers much closer to those of Modern Warfare 2 than 3. This is the most Call of Duty has been reinvigorated in recent years, and the numbers will likely reflect this."

Newzoo says that Modern Warfare 2 attracted 21.7 million monthly active users in the US, compared with just 12 million for Modern Warfare 3.

One key discussion point is around the impact Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will have on PlayStation. For the past generation, Sony has had a content and marketing exclusivity agreement with Activision over Call of Duty, which has now ended. Game Pass is also unavailable on PlayStation 5. So could this result in some audience shift from PlayStation towards Xbox?

"Those who own both Xbox and PlayStation consoles may be swayed to play the game on Microsoft's devices, but cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts mean this is not necessarily a permanent decision,” explains Harding-Rolls.

"Indeed, there could be a scenario where PlayStation-first multi-console gamers switch to Xbox to play the premium campaign while still playing F2P Warzone on their preferred console under a single Activision account. As such, I'm not convinced that the longer-term audience on PlayStation will be significantly disrupted, although Sony will potentially have its storefront share of premium sales undermined to an extent."

"I'm not convinced that the longer-term audience on PlayStation will be significantly disrupted, although Sony will potentially have its storefront share of premium sales undermined to an extent"

Piers-Harding Rolls, Ampere

All the analysts we spoke to agreed on one thing, and that's the success of this move will depend on whether Xbox can retain the new subscribers it brings in beyond the game's launch period. And whether they are prepared to implement a strategy to continually engage new subscribers into 2025.

Katan Games' Dr Serkan Toto believes there is pressure from Xbox to get this right.

"We all know that Microsoft's gaming unit has not been growing as expected, which is why Microsoft greenlit the Activision Blizzard mega deal in the first place,” he said. “Now the pressure on Xbox is sky high: If Call of Duty will not make the Game Pass business model work, what possibly can?

"Nobody knows what Microsoft's expectations are for Game Pass growth past launch, but if Black Ops 6 does not meet targets, things can become very grim very quickly. I also wonder if Black Ops 6 will be able to retain subscribers in the long run or if numbers will drop sharply again early next year, after the initial hype runs out."

However, Pachter believes Call of Duty is the perfect game to keep users engaged.

"Call of Duty players generally play for much longer because of multiplayer and frequent map drops,” he says. "I think the average is closer to six months and a lot play year-round. The year-round players will sign up and stay."