Analyst: Modern Warfare 2 to sell over 11 million

Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey is predicting that Activision Blizzard's Modern Warfare 2 will sell over 11 million units in fiscal 2009, suggesting that it will be the year's "largest videogame release."

According to Hickey, the game will sell 11.1 million units, with estimated revenue of USD 803 million. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, the title's predecessor, sold over 7 million in Q4 2008, and has sold an estimated 13 million life-to-date. According to Hickey, a higher attach rate will boost sales of the highly anticipated sequel.

"We estimate the combined Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 installed base for US and Europe has grown 125 per cent and 200 per cent, respectively since Modern Warfare's November '07 release, ushering in a remarkably larger market opportunity for Modern Warfare 2," said Hickey.

Additionally, Hickey points to the holiday 2008 release of Call of Duty: World at War as contributing to a growing fanbase for the franchise, boosting potential sales even further.

"In addition to the success of Modern Warfare, we believe the potential Modern Warfare 2 fan base grew with the holiday '08 release of Call of Duty: World at War, which management suggested one in five buyers were new franchise gamers," said Hickey. "The game has sold an estimated 11 million units in 6 months, suggesting an additional 2 million potential Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 consumers this holiday."